CONVICTION FROM THE SKY.
Redefining investment decision-making for an increasingly complex world.
INVESTMENT METHODOLOGY
We employ a systematic, rules-based allocation framework. Signal generation is derived from real-time atmospheric telemetry, covering low, mid, and upper tropospheric layers, and wind vectors. A proprietary classifier scores each formation against a morphological library, and only signals with a confidence of 0.80 or higher are actionable.
Each actionable signal maps to a pre-assigned instrument with a fixed directional bias. Position sizing scales with signal confidence from 6.0% to 13.2% of NAV, subject to a 15% liquidity floor. Sell signals reduce the largest concentration. If cloud cover falls below 10%, no signal is made and the book is held. All parameters are fixed ex ante.
SCANNING ENTROPY…
Morphology classifier · trigger ≥ 80%
Mapped: —
Morphology: Stratus / cumulus sheet
Order flow · FIX 4.2 → IBKR PAPER
Implemented allocation
Our Philosophy
Shit Weather Investments is built on a simple observation: the asset management industry draws on the same information and the same models, arriving on the same confident conclusions. We looked elsewhere.
01
In an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical environment, Shit Weather Investments minimizes human bias from the investment process. Our system operates on environmental signals, and so avoids the overconfidence that is common in traditional asset allocation.
02
Atmospheric data carries no narrative and has no stake in the outcome. It does not react to headlines or fear, which makes it a clean and consistent source of decision-making input. Cloud cover is free, continuous, and available in every market regime.
03
Most market signals have a short history and a shorter shelf life. Golden handshakes and phallic formations have been visible overhead for millions of years. That is a longer track record than any index.
0
Research notes read / week
Zero consensus noise
Δ −212 vs industry
6 min
Time to decision
Revealed preference, resolved in one sitting
Δ −7 weeks vs committee
0.0%
Mandate deviation
Deterministic ex ante position limits
Δ −11.3 pp deviation
0.0 days
Rationalisation lag
No narrative required after a loss
Δ −3.2 days after a loss
ATMOSPHERIC INVESTING
Most investment processes begin with a view, but ours begins with an observation. Shit Weather Investments allocates capital according to what is measurably overhead, not what is widely expected.